美股什么时候抄底？
dazzle • • 14962 次浏览In a dataset dating back to 1928, returns of -4% or worse for the S&P 500 have only occurred 146 times. Since the end of World War II, we have only seen 51 days this weak in 75 years. Down 4% days are rare, and they tend to cluster in economic recessions.
Putting together the cumulative weak days on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday and we are entering historic territory. The S&P 500 has shed 10.7% over these past four trading sessions.
. We have not had a four day selloff this bad since the financial crisis in 2008. (-17.2% in four days ending October 9th, 2008)
. Before that, we had not experienced as bad of a 4 day stretch since July 2002 when the announcement of accounting regularities at Worldcom spooked a market already grappling with the tech bubble deflation and post-9/11 uncertainty. (-11.96% in four days ending July 23, 2002)
. Before the 2002 sell-off, it was the worst four day period since August 1998 when global assets were frightened by the prospect of a Russian debt default. (-12.41% ending August 31, 1998)
. Prior to 1998, you have to go back to the historic 1987 market sell-off. (-28.5% ending October 19th, 1987)
. Before 1987, you have to go back a quarter-century to the Kennedy Slide of 1962. (-10.97% ending May 28, 1962)
. Prior to that sell-off, you have to go back to May 1940, which an astute reader recently pointed out was the German blitzkreig into France (-15.1% through May 14, 1940)
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#1
我准备小额多次抄底我用的是ib，交易费用极低，所以每次拿不了很准的情况下，就小额抄底，例如昨天一开盘我就抄了5股QQQ。
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dazzle 楼主#2
5股就是10W刀
已经录了3k了吧
你打算接下来怎么加？
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#3
就在今日 机不可失
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dazzle 楼主#4
牛市买纳斯 熊市买标普我记得巴老讲过
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#5
请教ib全称是什么，交易费多少呀？
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#6
一股不是200多吗
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#7
太抬举我了QQQ一股200出头，5股才1000刀呀，所以说是小额。
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#8
我已经彻底放弃个股了买的都是QQQ，SPY，XLV等等的etf。
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dazzle 楼主#9
哦 想成手了对不起，想成手了，IB每次都是default 给100股的量，100股和1股都是收1块的commission对吧～
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dazzle 楼主#10
买指数省心嗯，感觉买指数挺好的，炒个股的费心费力，都是大神或者牛人，我也是打算盯着指数买。
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#11
买美股手续费多少啊IB是最便宜的吗
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#12
看图形估计18000左右是这一波的底部不过要慢慢走，美股向来是熊短牛长，不过确定熊市以后还是得走4-5个月吧。今年6-7月的时候开始找找有没有机会然后慢慢买入吧，现在市场上等着抄底的人太多，不适合买。等大家都放弃抄底了以后再找机会比较好。
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#13
请问大家在新加坡怎么开ib的fully disclosed broker账户呀在ib的fully disclosed broker开户合适吗？ 推荐哪一家啊
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#14
其实没有什么几时抄底的问题基本原则是不涨不买，不跌不卖
没有抄底逃顶的说法
操作对头，任何时候都是好时候
持股的时候，做好保护措施-有很多工具可以用，这点美国比较强 -
#15
有特朗普在，以及2008年的经验，这次应该不会跌太多我认为上周五就是底了。25000是个很强的支撑。
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#16
据我观察，今晚有几百点反弹未必是底
好股票可以买起，慢慢倒 -
#17
忍不住 数据说话（峰峰值差）2007.10 .13930
2009.3.7600
跌6330,或45%+
2020.2.12 29520
2020.2.28 24720
跌4800.或 15 16%+
就是这样子 -
dazzle 楼主#18
看今天亚洲市场像是靠谱了今天亚洲市场都还行，周五估计会是个阶段低点了，之后怎么样只能看疫情怎么发展。
今天A股很暴躁，人们对政策红利的期待和信心很高涨。 -
#19
只是感觉a股有点过于乐观港新比较实际
至少还要看两周 -
#20
三天已经反弹了近2000点呵呵
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#21
呵呵高兴了
还要血洗几轮
长进点，先讲，不要看到结果才叫
现在的位置继续空
无论降息放水
这就是所谓的割草
光future今天就收了几百点=多少?
果然上涨的股神 -
#22
我都已经完成套利了，还看毛结果啊都说了上周五是底。
会不会有新的底，要就要随时观察了。
说一句几月见低，或者多少是底都没啥意义。错过了太多机会。 -
#23
哈哈，恭喜啊你每次都事后套利
房子买了多少，车子几辆
有没有财务自由
真羡慕你，要好好向你学习 -
#24
早上起来轻轻的笑下
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#25
anyway 1200-950=250所以，你懂的
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#26
就事论事，别扯别的自由不自由也不至于告诉你啊。
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#27
今天开始买回了，上周的已经套利了
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#28
南子就是這麼理解的，如圖
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#29
你挺乐观的。。。我看不到那么远，我就是先看眼前的波段了。
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#30
这就和2毛钱买AM，然后25左右卖掉一样就算是崩溃的市场，都有反弹的。你自己抓不住也没关系，但你不能说那些做波段的人看错方向了。
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#31
你說得太對了做波段， 永遠都會賺錢的
沒有對和錯，賺錢是硬道理
低買高賣和高賣低買，究竟一不一樣， 那不一樣
南子老是搞不清什麼叫趨勢， 趨勢交易爲什麼安全可靠 -好煩，維女子與小人難養也
真的 -
#32
小盆友，要不要那么敏感啊有说过谁对谁错吗?只是各抒己见而已吧。
况且，股市投资，哪有常胜军，永远正确赚钱的，如果这一关过不了，不要入圈
风投圈都知道创业公司的存活率不到5%，难道其他95%都错了？
这里谈的是基本面，由于经济活动受限（航运 空运，生产，流通。。-不要和我争网络医疗机会来了，问题层次不同），无论怎么刺激和以前的效果会大不同，对不对，看看。
和amal一样，不是几毛买和几毛卖的问题，那只股根本就不该介入的问题 就是因为基本面
现在的股市根本不是抄底的问题，而是避险，如何避险，有各种工具
趋势，趋势，和大势才是成功率的保证
明白? -
#33
对呀，按技术流的说法（大概）后日高点高于前日高点 后日低点也高于前日低点，反转势头已成，应该积极介入抄底
然鹅，如果，万一，可能，接下来的低点低于前两日低点 高点低于前两日高点，是不是叫头肩形态？那时候又怎么说?
是不是该说要5波出齐？
女人都只有两波
等5波，怕是等到花儿也谢了也等不到咯 -
#34
耶？行家耶幾時約你跟南子上上課
她基本不相信我說的也 -
#35
承蒙看得起如果今夜再跌>700点，我们再约
也许非农好，跌幅窄，也许差加上新肺，就翻倍（1400+/-） -
#36
应该靠谱了下超过700点开市
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dazzle 楼主#37
美股什么时候抄底？In a dataset dating back to 1928, returns of -4% or worse for the S&P 500 have only occurred 146 times. Since the end of World War II, we have only seen 51 days this weak in 75 years. Down 4% days are rare, and they tend to cluster in economic recessions.
Putting together the cumulative weak days on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday and we are entering historic territory. The S&P 500 has shed 10.7% over these past four trading sessions.
. We have not had a four day selloff this bad since the financial crisis in 2008. (-17.2% in four days ending October 9th, 2008)
. Before that, we had not experienced as bad of a 4 day stretch since July 2002 when the announcement of accounting regularities at Worldcom spooked a market already grappling with the tech bubble deflation and post-9/11 uncertainty. (-11.96% in four days ending July 23, 2002)
. Before the 2002 sell-off, it was the worst four day period since August 1998 when global assets were frightened by the prospect of a Russian debt default. (-12.41% ending August 31, 1998)
. Prior to 1998, you have to go back to the historic 1987 market sell-off. (-28.5% ending October 19th, 1987)
. Before 1987, you have to go back a quarter-century to the Kennedy Slide of 1962. (-10.97% ending May 28, 1962)
. Prior to that sell-off, you have to go back to May 1940, which an astute reader recently pointed out was the German blitzkreig into France (-15.1% through May 14, 1940)
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该帖荣获当日十大第7，奖励楼主6分以及9狮城帮币，时间：2020-03-01 22:00:07。
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该帖荣获当日十大第8，奖励楼主4分以及6狮城帮币，时间：2020-03-06 22:00:08。