现在依旧是房价回弹的起步阶段，发展商标地的价格应该会持续走高至少到2019年，未来至少3-4年内房价只会越起越高。一级市场带动二级市场。DBS前几天的报告对新加坡2029年的房价预测很乐观，比我敢说。
之前有人说房地产市场没有向上的变化趋势，或者说是“临死前”的回光返照，作为中介本身的立场会被怀疑是正常的，但是市场的走势是如此的明显，不能罔顾事实，信了上面说的，错过这几个月再购买的刚需买家必定会后悔的。
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81 条回复
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#51
这就是政府的困境加大土地供应两年后公寓整体供应可能会相当过剩。现在暂时供给不足导致集体非理性行为，政府又没法调控住。
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#52
房事果然吸引眼球
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#53
政府控制了啊加了redevelopment fee 发展商联合起来收地抬价最后消费者买单
但是房子又不能一味的涨“总价”因为毕竟购买力有限，所以以后就涨单价这就是为什么尺价以后会越来越贵。房子还是一两百万之间但是面积缩水。要知道香港明星八卦杂志都是说某某某住的是千尺豪宅。1000英尺以后真的要变豪宅了。
我们下一代要跟香港人一样习惯厨房站不下两个人，厕所门开不直会撞到马桶。单位面积超小空调台和阳台非常气派。
未来十年后再来一轮，老公寓再被enbloc 再把人往尺价贵总面积小的房子里赶。
吃亏的还是小老百姓，然后总有一天房市崩盘或者大家都习惯去租或者大战爆发。 -
#54
一字之差哇哈哈哈
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#55
大神请帮忙引荐到装修群 可以吗
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#56
不会直接加capital gain tax但是会想一些其他的办法抑制房产投资，反正都是类似的意思，用SSD我也算在这里面。反正不是扒买方的皮就是扒卖方的皮，不扒不行。
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#57
新加坡有组屋的存在组屋这10年新房面积没有所谓
私宅弄到太离谱 大众会转向组屋自住了。
所以我觉得会变小 但是还是得有个限度。 -
#58
第二第三张图是表示永久地契不一定就好第二张图，芝麻街的永久地契（999）房子，07年买10年卖，屋主亏了50万，后来撑到17年，才又涨10万，而且还没涨回07的价格。而下面的99年lakeside的房子，也是07买10卖，屋主赚了30多万，12再卖又赚30多万。楼主想说明永久不见得比99年赚钱，就算赶上同样的地产周期。
第三张图，是郊区99年楼花，15年买，18年卖，可以说跟地产周期是反的。可是屋主仍旧赚钱了。
楼主用这两个例子来反对“必须永久，必须新，必须地点好”这个论点的。
希望我理解的正确 ：） -
#59
谢谢解惑原来要把时间轴带进去看，非常感谢！
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#60
请问房子买了租不出去是不是真的很欢乐？
不要和我说，市场上没有租不出去的房子，只有降价, 降价后每个月都要top 现金，这怎么破？ -
#61
麻烦你多读多想多思考ssd absd 不就是一进一出，zf掐着脖子，你还好心希望zf再给你一刀？
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#62
我有参加林勋强部长的答百姓问的座谈啊我问了capital gain tax的问题，他是讲这个确实是新加坡以前的政策，也提到重启CGT是大事，不止会影响房地产，所以政府会很谨慎。就算重启CGT也会非常小心的只影响residential property。
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#63
请问有官方link吗？据我浅知，然而，新加坡并不征收资本收益税（capital gain tax），
你拿出部长来回复我，我还是期望有官方的link -
#64
受教育水平不高是哪里来的看法呢？我随意的考了一次RES之后都恨不得去英国修一遍法学
教育水平不高的过不了桥啊我觉得
可能你的标准不一样？多少算不高之上？ -
#65
capital gain tax,我听过专对于买卖是为盈利的交易。著名的就是某对夫妇买卖好几套good class bunglaow获利的案例，iras追回capital gain tax,因为屋主快买快卖。
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/courts-crime/couple-to-pay-tax-on-16m-profit-from-selling-bungalows -
#66
我是说研究能力是需要培养的如果是phd转行的房产中介我还觉得有可能有研究能力 你统计下中介的受教育程度平均多少年 就来预测这个预测那个
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#67
这只是一个single side bet 根本不是有理有据的啊其实种种预测都不能说是负责任的 因为政府对房市的调控太多了 而且又是朝令夕改 没有太多的反应时间 所以一切皆有可能 只有刚需是不变的
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#68
太对了大家都说了好些了，大到国家间战争，小到美联储加息，你不是真要问这个吧
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#69
大大唱多的是火箭军。
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#70
政府卖地全是leasehold
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#71
油价3-5年内超过100美元几率很小
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#72
请问大神加息会抑制私宅市场让其降温。那加息会带动转售祖屋市场么？
我的逻辑是很多不那么有经济实力的人入手公寓时会更加慎重，进而退而求其次买入更加稳妥的祖屋。不知道这其中有没有必然联系或者联系并不是这么简单？ -
#73
系列3 690万人口的目标能实现吗？Slowdown in population growth
In January 2013 when the government released the controversial Population White Paper (人口白皮书) and predicted Singapore’s population to reach 6 million by 2020 and 6.9 million by 2030.
The Population Trends 2017 published at 2017 September by the Singapore Department of Statistics shows that our total population grew 0.1 percent to 5.61 million. It is the slowest annual growth rate since the year SARS hit our shores in 2003.
If we continue to inch 0.1 percent every year, Singapore’s total population will only reach 5.69 million by 2030 – a far cry from the government’s ambitious target of 6.9 million.
If we need to have 6 million population by 2020, from now on we must have an annual growth rate of at least 2.2 percent, or add 126,000 more residents and foreigners every year.
In 2016, there are 41,251 live-births but 20,017 total deaths for the whole year. The net increase in population is only 21,234.
With the next General Election coming in two to three years’ time, do you think there is any chance that the government will import 105,000 foreigners every year to fill up the gap?
Housing implications:
The 2017 Financial Stability Review released by the Monetary Authority of Singapore on November 30 said it best:
“The development of en-bloc and GLS sites should more than double the number of units available for sale in the near term. In the medium term, the stock of private housing will increase.
With slower population growth, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether existing vacancies and the new supply coming on-stream can be fully absorbed by the market. Should there be insufficient occupation demand for the completed housing units, a supply imbalance could result and place downward pressure on prices and rentals in the medium term.”
Where have all the foreigners gone?
If we look carefully at the numbers in population size, Singapore’s annual population growth hovers between 1.2 to 2.5 from 2010 to 2016. The exceptionally small increment of 0.1 percent last year is mainly due to the negative increase of -1.6 percent for non-residents.
A Straits Times article explains that this first drop in 14 years is mainly due to a decline in Work Permit holders.
But the reality is: foreigners on employment pass or work permit have to leave Singapore once they lose their jobs or when their contracts are not renewed, so they won’t affect our low unemployment rate and we can have headlines like “unemployment rate falls; incomes rise”.
The current size of permanent residents (PR) stands at 526,600 which hasn’t changed much for four years. This is also the government’s intention to keep the PR population stable after the number peaked at 541,000 in 2010.
Housing implications:
housing demand is not determined by GDP, but unemployment rate. High unemployment rate affects both the sale and rental market.
It is now more difficult for foreigners to get approval for PR status. Foreigners are leaving the country but companies are not adding more expatriate positions.
The Additional Buyer Stamp Duty imposed on foreign buyers was raised to 15 percent in January 2013. According to the Savills November Residential Sales Briefing citing URA’s 3rd quarter 2017 data, PRs and foreigners purchased 1,315 resale units, representing a 13 percent quarter-on-quarter decline.
In the meantime, Singaporeans is the only hope for increase in housing demand. Singapore home ownership has peaked at 90 percent and policy makers are pushing for 100 percent home ownership.
Locals don’t need to rent and we don’t have enough foreigners renting. No wonder vacancy rate of private residential properties still remains high at 8.4 percent.
For property buyers and investors, there is some useful advice from MAS’s 2017 Financial Stability Review.
“Households should continue to stay financially prudent. While household debt growth remains in line with income growth over the past year, households should take into account their ability to service their debt in the longer term. Potential property investors should be aware that the subdued rental market and further interest rate hikes could weigh on borrowers’ debt servicing ability.”
下个系列会讨论人口老龄化带来对房产带来的冲击
吐槽下 爪机排版太烂 -
#74
为啥？２００美元都有过小麋鹿自己
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#75
等待整理过之后发干货帖子。
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#76
加息看怎么加纯数学上看，祖屋房价对利息没有公寓对利息敏感。
因为：
1。坡人喜欢找公积金局借钱，公积金利率很稳定，政府会 smooth 冲击
2。祖屋不能用作资产担保，不能当成金融商品进行再融资。 所以没有抵押风险。
3。祖屋作为解决人最基本生活需要的资产，有很强的韧性 ，就像经济危机到来时，餐馆生意暴跌但是超市稳定，会小幅增长一样。同时有租屋公寓的人，在高利息的时候，可能考虑卖掉公寓，住回祖屋，解决债务问题。 -
#77
enbloc 本来就是政府不花钱进行都市更新的手段， 而且还能靠延长地契[…]等不同方式来增加收入。。。 吃饱了撑着 这钱不要了吗？ 层主不要忽略政府的核心利益
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#78
有过不代表最近几年会有嘛看看OPEC和NEA的report嘛
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#79
系列3.1 政府部门确认到2030年690万人口达不到Exactly five years later at the announcement of Singapore Budget 2018, Josephine Teo, Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office in charge of population matters, admitted that “Singapore is not expected to change its immigration policy, and its population is likely to be significantly below 6.9 million by 2030”.
以后讨论不要把人口到690万作为一个上涨的理由。 -
#80
少了一个最重要的维度进货价
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#81
组屋得啥时候开始涨？